Baltimore Ranks Among The Top 10 Cities In Post-Pandemic Recovery!
In a study conducted by the University of Toronto's School of Cities, Baltimore consistently ranks the highest in post-pandemic recovery among 62 American cities based on cellphone geolocation activity in downtown areas. In fact, on July 4th, 2022, Baltimore reached 100% recovery matching pre-pandemic levels compared to New York City's 75% recovery rating and Washington DC's 65%.
Figure 1 (below): Ranking of Downtown Recovery Rates in Large Cities comparing Spring 2022 to Spring 2019, pre-pandemic.
Recovery Rankings based on an assessment of mobile device data, captured by Spectus, around points of interest in the downtown areas of 62 American cities. Since all cities in the study were included because they were the largest cities in Canada and the United States, ‘large’ in this case refers to the largest 20 cities in the study. All other cities are considered ‘medium’.
Leading the Rankings on Recovery
The lasting effects of the pandemic continue to challenge downtowns across America as companies slowly return back to the office, restaurants reopen shuddered doors, and retail competes against a bolstered digital marketplace. Despite shocking headlines and confirmation bias, data captured by cellphone geolocation data confirms that activity in Baltimore’s downtown has returned to over 90% pre-pandemic levels.
Consistently ranking among the top cities in recovery rates for 2022, Baltimore has outpaced it’s neighbors, Washington DC and even New York City! In fact, on July 4th, 2022, Baltimore reached 100% recovery matching pre-pandemic levels compared to New York City's 75% recovery rating and Washington DC's 65%.
Figure 2 (below): Patterns of Downtown Recovery Rates on a rolling weekly average in 5 American Cities
This chart displays a rolling weekly average of the normalized visits by total visits for a given week during the pandemic is divided by the normalized visits by total visits for the corresponding week pre-pandemic.
Data & Methodology
The University of Toronto's School of Cities has an ongoing study of “Pandemic Recovery Trajectories across 62 North American Cities” collecting cellphone geo-location activity around points of interest in downtown areas comparing post- and pre-pandemic levels.
The study measures “Recovery” as “measures the number of raw POI visits (scaled by state sampling rate) in post-COVID period vs pre-COVID period per geography”
Recovery Rankings are displayed a ranked bar chart with city names and metrics superimposed on the bars. A value greater than 100% means that for the selected inputs, the mobile device activity improved from the comparison period. A value less than 100% means the opposite, and a value equal to 100% means the activity did not change. Recovery Patterns are displayed as a rolling weekly average of the selected metric. The mobile device count for a given week during the pandemic is divided by the mobile device count for the corresponding week pre-pandemic.
Consistency Is Key
Looking season to season rankings for 2022 as outlined by the study, Baltimore consistently ranks among the Top 10 cities in each season; Winter 2022 = #8 at 85% recovery, Spring 2022 = #6 at 91% recovery, Summer 2022 = #10 at 80% recovery, and Fall 2022 = #7 at 95% recovery.
Downtown recovery metrics divide the sum of downtown area's device counts of the week by the corresponding week in 2019. A value greater than 100% means that for the selected inputs, the mobile device activity improved from the comparison period. A value less than 100% means the opposite, and a value equal to 100% means the activity did not change.
Figure 3a: Downtown Recovery Rankings - Winter 2022
Figure 3b: Downtown Recovery Rankings - Spring 2022
Figure 3c: Downtown Recovery Rankings - Summer 2022
Figure 3d: Downtown Recovery Rankings - Fall 2022
Keeping The Momentum
How can Baltimore continue this trajectory and grow beyond pre-pandemic activity and engagement levels?
Keeping this momentum is the goal of the Waterfront Partnership and of our partners at Downtown Partnership, Visit Baltimore, The City of Baltimore, and many others.
Together, our organizations helped forge 2022 into a landmark year for the waterfront and downtown, seeing the opening of Rash Field Park Phase I, a new festival series, Baltimore by Baltimore, focused on showcasing local musicians and makers, and with many new businesses opening their doors across Inner Harbor, Habor East, Habor Point, and Fells Point.
2023 is shaping up to be another momentous year on the waterfront. Stay tuned and keep up with what’s happening in our harbor on Instagram and on our newsletter!
